Will the UK drop in base rate make any difference to the crisis?
The Bank of England's monetary policy committee met on 6th November 2008 and took the decision to drop the bank base rate by an incredible 1.5%. Not only has this never occurred before, but the last time the base rate sat as low as 3% in the United Kingdom was 1954.
But is this going to make any difference to the market as it stands? Unfortunately, in my professional opinion, the answer to that question is probably "no". It seems likely to me that most lenders are unable to compete and drop their interest rates by this 1.5%.It seems that the majority if not all of the lenders have failed to pass this reduction on to their clients and are holding their standard variable as it stands, regardless of the fact that his is now at least 6 months behind the times.
The problem that most lending institutions have both here in the UK and around the globe is even though bank base rates have reduced the cost of funds from bank to bank has not fallen at the same rate. The rate at which financial institutions in the UK lend to each other is called the LIBOR rate which stands for the London inter-bank offered rate. Whilst LIBOR has come down very slightly over the last few months it is quite considerably out of sync with bank base rates. So even though money appears to be cheaper it is not.
The LIBOR rate is dictated by the willingness of the institutions to loan money to each other. Due to the onset of the credit crunch and the fact that the poor lending policies of the institutions have come to light, there has been an unwillingness to lend between the institutions and this has a knock on effect on the LIBOR. They all know about each other's shoddy lending policies of the past and, due to the down turn in the economy, they do not want to expose themselves any further.
You might have thought that the huge injection of capital from governments both here and abroad would have oiled the system but let me tell you this is far from the case. I am unsure why, there are rumors that lenders have been told that as a condition of the injection they have to lend a set percentage more next year than this year and as such they are saving themselves for that mandatory position but who knows. All I know is there is very little money out there, what is there is at low loan to values and the rates are poor.
In my opinion, what the decision of 6th November will do is up the confidence levels of the public. People will come to the natural conclusion that the lowering of base rates means there is light at the end of the tunnel. They will soon realise this isn't so when they see that their mortgage rates have not changed in line with the bank's new rate. The difference may be seen in commercial finance though. Most commercial rates are set at a level above the bank's base rate, so it may reach here.
What is unusual though is that many commercial lenders have all of a sudden increased their over base rate levels, or have eliminated their levels completely. This is to offset any risk of money loss when such a change in the base rate is put forward. It seems odd that they should react so quickly and shrewdly. Did they know the change was coming perhaps? Impossible to say....or prove.
So in short will it have any effect? Well may be not in the short term but I would like to think may be even hope that over the coming months this recent reduction will find its way to the pumps as it were. If it doesn't and doesn't soon then all I can say is in the immortal words of Dads Army, We're all doomed, doomed I tell you. Let's hope not hey?
But is this going to make any difference to the market as it stands? Unfortunately, in my professional opinion, the answer to that question is probably "no". It seems likely to me that most lenders are unable to compete and drop their interest rates by this 1.5%.It seems that the majority if not all of the lenders have failed to pass this reduction on to their clients and are holding their standard variable as it stands, regardless of the fact that his is now at least 6 months behind the times.
The problem that most lending institutions have both here in the UK and around the globe is even though bank base rates have reduced the cost of funds from bank to bank has not fallen at the same rate. The rate at which financial institutions in the UK lend to each other is called the LIBOR rate which stands for the London inter-bank offered rate. Whilst LIBOR has come down very slightly over the last few months it is quite considerably out of sync with bank base rates. So even though money appears to be cheaper it is not.
The LIBOR rate is dictated by the willingness of the institutions to loan money to each other. Due to the onset of the credit crunch and the fact that the poor lending policies of the institutions have come to light, there has been an unwillingness to lend between the institutions and this has a knock on effect on the LIBOR. They all know about each other's shoddy lending policies of the past and, due to the down turn in the economy, they do not want to expose themselves any further.
You might have thought that the huge injection of capital from governments both here and abroad would have oiled the system but let me tell you this is far from the case. I am unsure why, there are rumors that lenders have been told that as a condition of the injection they have to lend a set percentage more next year than this year and as such they are saving themselves for that mandatory position but who knows. All I know is there is very little money out there, what is there is at low loan to values and the rates are poor.
In my opinion, what the decision of 6th November will do is up the confidence levels of the public. People will come to the natural conclusion that the lowering of base rates means there is light at the end of the tunnel. They will soon realise this isn't so when they see that their mortgage rates have not changed in line with the bank's new rate. The difference may be seen in commercial finance though. Most commercial rates are set at a level above the bank's base rate, so it may reach here.
What is unusual though is that many commercial lenders have all of a sudden increased their over base rate levels, or have eliminated their levels completely. This is to offset any risk of money loss when such a change in the base rate is put forward. It seems odd that they should react so quickly and shrewdly. Did they know the change was coming perhaps? Impossible to say....or prove.
So in short will it have any effect? Well may be not in the short term but I would like to think may be even hope that over the coming months this recent reduction will find its way to the pumps as it were. If it doesn't and doesn't soon then all I can say is in the immortal words of Dads Army, We're all doomed, doomed I tell you. Let's hope not hey?
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2:34 AM
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